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New FAU and Mainstreet Poll of Arizona

May 23, 2024
Mainstreet Research
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BOCARATON, Fla. (May 23, 2024)– With the 2024 electioncycle fast approaching, new polling data from Nevada and Arizona reveal adeeply engaged and starkly divided electorate in these pivotal battlegroundstates. The FAU Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and MainstreetResearch polls highlightthe intense partisan polarization and motivations driving voter sentiment,including economic concerns, the legal proceedings against former U.S. PresidentDonald Trump, and the potential entry of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a third-partycandidate.

Nevada:Economy and Immigration Among Key Indicators of Voter Decisions

TheNevada poll “makes it clear that the electorate remains deeply divided alongpartisan lines,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., co-director of FAU’sPolCom Lab and professor of political science.

Trump leads U.S. President Joe Biden (50% to 42%), with Trumpcommanding a lead in all age groups except the 65+ voters in the state. In the 35-to 49-year-old bracket, Trump leads 58% to 30%. Biden also has a clear youthissue that may help decide the election in that state; in the 18 to 35 age bracket,Trump holds a 50% to 32% lead. Interestingly with Kennedy in the mix, Trump’slead shrinks from 44% to 40%.

Concernsabout the economy (31%) appears to be a major factor driving voter sentiment inthe state. Immigration was the most prominent issue for 20% of voters, while thepolls identified abortion as an issue of concern for 18% of voters. For theyoungest voters, the economy was the biggest concern (32%). Among women, abortionwas only the primary issue for 21% of voters. However, among likely Bidenvoters, abortion was the primary concern as reported by 30% of voters. ForTrump voters, economy (45%) and immigration (35%) were the key issues.

Aremarkable 76% of Nevada voters said they were closely following Trump’s legalbattle over the hush money case in New York. Incumbent Democratic Sen. JackyRosen currently holds a solid lead (48%) over her Republican challenger SamBrown (35%).

“AlthoughBiden is struggling in Nevada, other Democratic candidates appear poised to dowell,” said Wagner. “With a close divide and motivated bases on both sides, thecompetitiveness of Nevada could once again make it a crucial battleground in2024.”  

Arizona:Shaping Up as Another Battleground

InArizona, Biden’s lead over Trump in the presidential race (45% to 43%) iswithin the estimated margin of error. When looking at voter age, Biden leadswith older voters (52% over 50 and 54% over 65) while Trump holds a commandinglead among those ages 35 to 49 (55% to 33%). Biden commands a strong lead withBlack and Hispanic voters, as well as a strong lead with white college-educatedvoters. Trump leads with white, non-college-educated voters, and those whoidentify as “other.” The potential Kennedy candidacy also threatens to disrupttraditional voting blocs there by chipping away at support for the two maincontenders.

RubenGallego, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Arizona, is currentlyoutperforming incumbent Republican Gov. Kari Lake (44% to 37%) suggesting that Lakehas had a difficult time getting traction in this race. Like Trump, Lake isleading only with voters under age 49, and more than 20% of voters in that agebracket indicate they are still undecided. The close numbers forecasting afight for control of the House in Arizona underscore how the congressionalgeneric ballot highlights the intense battle being waged across the state’sdistricts.

Thougheconomic troubles topped the list of concerns for Arizona voters (30%), “abortionrights and immigration (23%) remain a galvanizing force (18%),” Wagner said.

Theseresults are tied to political affiliation. Abortion is the key issue forDemocrats (30%) compared to 7% of Republicans, while immigration is key for 37%of Republican voters but only 11% of Democrats. The economy is important tovoters in both parties (27% of Democrats, 35% of Republicans). Voters under 49 yearsold are significantly concerned with the economy, more so than other issues.Voters over age 50 are most concerned with the economy.

Likein Nevada, Trump’s various legal entanglements were capturing significantattention from Arizona voters across partisan differences, with 67% of votersindicate they were closely following Trump’s New York trial.

“Witheconomic unease colliding with social debates such as abortion, these polls fromNevada and Arizona together depict a recipe for an early nailbiter in twostates poised to be decisive battlegrounds in the next presidential race,” saidRobert Gutsche, Jr., associate professor in the School of Communication andMultimedia Studies at FAU and strategic lead for the PolCom Lab.

The Arizona poll surveyed 609 adults in the state between May 19and 21, using IVR and an online panel. It aimed to represent the votingpopulation in Arizona. No margin of error can be assigned due to the onlinecomponent, but a poll of this size would typically have a margin of error of+/- 4% at the 95% confidence level.

The Nevada poll surveyed 522 adults in the state between May 19-21,using IVR and an online panel. It aimed to represent the voting population inNevada. Due to the online component, no margin of error can be assigned, but apoll of this size would typically have a margin of error of +/- 4.3% at the 95%confidence level.

-FAU-

 

About Florida AtlanticUniversity:
Florida Atlantic University, established in 1961, officially opened itsdoors in 1964 as the fifth public university in Florida. Today, the Universityserves more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students across six campuseslocated along the southeast Florida coast. In recent years, the University hasdoubled its research expenditures and outpaced its peers in student achievementrates. Through the coexistence of access and excellence, FAU embodies aninnovative model where traditional achievement gaps vanish. FAU is designated aHispanic-serving institution, ranked as a top public university by U.S. News& World Report and a High Research Activity institution by the CarnegieFoundation for the Advancement of Teaching. For more information, visit www.fau.edu.


About Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab:

The Florida Atlantic University Department ofPolitical Science and the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies, incollaboration in with Mainstreet Research, established the PolCom Lab toinvestigate and analyze public opinion and political trends across the nation,and particularly in the state of Florida.
For more information, visit www.faupolling.com.

 

About Mainstreet Research:
Founded in 2010, Mainstreet Research is recognized as one of Canada’stop public opinion and market research firms. Since our founding, we have beenproviding actionable and data-driven insights to our clients to help them maketheir most important evidence-based strategic decisions. Mainstreet Research isa proud corporate member of CRIC and exceeds all Canadian and internationalstandards for market research and public opinion research. For moreinformation, visit www.mainstreetresearch.ca.

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